Europe Tag

Retail PMI Offers Little Consolation in the Wake of Disappointing Retail Sales

06 Nov, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Following yesterday’s rather disappointing retail sales data release, Markit’s Retail PMI data (released today) were not very inspiring either: While Germany managed to register marginal growth, the rest of the region’s major economies remain below 50, indicating continued contraction: Employment fell for the first time...

Disappointing Data Out of Europe– and a Big Change Ahead

14 Oct, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

While we will have to wait another month or so to see the official results, today’s data releases of both the ZEW Survey (red line) and European Industrial Production (dark blue line) do not bode well for Europe’s Q3 GDP (light blue line) release: On...

Central Banks Eschew Euro Holdings

09 Oct, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

According to the most recent data available, the IMF estimates that central banks around the world shifted quite a few of their reserves out of the euro in Q2....

EUR/USD v Interest Rate Differential (Update)

03 Oct, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

In June (here) and again last month (here), we noted a curious divergence in two series that have historically moved together– the EUR/USD exchange rate and the interest rate differential between the respective 2-year OISs....

A Euro On the Move

05 Sep, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Following the ECB’s June meeting, we noted (here) a curious disparity in the relationship between the EUR/USD exchange rate and the spread between interest rates in Europe versus the U.S.  While the euro had failed to move lower then (as it has in the past),...

The March Toward Negative Yields In Europe

02 Sep, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

We noted last week that there are six European countries that currently have zero or negative year-over-year percentage change in their consumer price index. It is rare for consumer prices to fall into negative territory. Perhaps equally as rare, investors are now paying to lend money...

Sharp Decline in European Construction Output

20 Aug, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

According to data released earlier today, he mini-boom in European construction that began earlier this year came to an abrupt halt in June, as output declined by more than 2% year-over-year (from a multi-year high of more than 7%yoy in April): Growth in building construction...

A Tick Up In German Credit Default Swaps

24 Jul, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Given recent drama among Portuguese financial institutions, we are not especially surprised to see an uptick in the yield on credit default swaps (CDSs): What is a little more surprising is the move up–small though it may be (so far, anyway)–in CDS for Germany, aka the...

A Tick Back Up in European CDS

08 Jul, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Credit default swaps (CDS)– the insurance against non-payment for fixed income products– have fallen across Europe since reaching highs in 2012: After the ECB’s early June announcement of extraordinary measures, CDS fell abruptly– but yields have creeped back towards pre-announcement levels in the last couple...

The Euro: Where To From Here?

05 Jun, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

In the wake of today’s ECB announcement of rate cuts as well as additional measures to boost bank lending and head off disinflation/ deflation trends in many of its member countries, the euro has (unsurprisingly) moved lower versus the dollar: How far might it decline?...

European (Youth) Unemployment

03 Jun, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The headline number for European unemployment came in slightly better (lower) than expected today.  However, young people under the age of 25 still struggle to find jobs....

Economic Uncertainty & Equities Markets

02 Jun, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Economic policy uncertainty continues to fall– along with the oft-quoted VIX– as this week’s much anticipated ECB meeting nears.  Will Europe’s monetary authority act decisively in an effort to combat increasingly common hints of disinflation/deflation?  Does that involve buying asset-backed securities?  Will today’s weak inflation...