With April in the rearview mirror, it’s a good time to look back on which factors had the strongest relationship to market over the past month. USD correlation had the tightest relationship to the market....
There is an old belief that when bank stocks are doing well, the economy must be doing well also. With this in mind, we decided to take a look how the banking sectors have performed in seven different countries: USA, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Japan,...
As we enter the heart of the S&P 500 1Q earnings season, and the CNBCs of the world focus on the number of companies that (surprise) beat earnings expectations once again, remember this fact: earnings expectations have been beaten down over the past six months....
Regional leadership trends have changed recently in the global equity market. So far this year, in USD terms, Developed Asia-Pacific is the best performing region in the developed world, with Europe second and North America last. In the following tables we show regional performance by...
Sales and earning growth expectations for energy stocks are still pretty awful for the next fiscal year (FY1). Sales are expected to drop by 17% and earnings by a whopping -29%. However, earnings are expected to make a V-shaped rebound....
We noted yesterday that the US stock market took off after the Fed statement released (and the 2-10 year part of the yield curve came in significantly). So after the dust settles, which sectors led and which sectors lagged after the Fed statement?...
MSCI World equities are off to a rough start for the month, with 8 out of 10 sectors in negative territory so far: The percentage of stocks above their respective moving averages has fallen: And the number of stocks making new lows has jumped to...
Volatility, as measured by the standard deviation of the the daily percent change in stock prices, has fallen since the beginning of the year in the MSCI World Index. The one month moving average of volatility has dropped to 0.54 from a high 0.86 on...
We track analyst estimates in a variety of ways. We look at growth rate expectations over the next four years. We also measure the percent change in the level of USD estimates across various time frames. We also track the difference in growth rates now...
We have had a bit of cyclical bounce over the past month in the developed stock markets. Late cyclical sectors (energy, materials, industrials) are three of the top four performing sectors and the other top performing sector is an early cyclical sector (consumer discretionary)....
With few exceptions, the 200-day moving average of the daily advance-decline ratio remains close to or below lows not seen since 2008– in direct contrast to the trend in prices for most MSCI sectors....
As we noted yesterday, the US stock market has been the only game in town recently. The S&P 500 is up about 8% over the year and the median stock in the MSCI North America is up 7%. Meanwhile the median stock in the MSCI...
With earnings season on the horizon, we thought we’d take a quick tour of estimates around the globe. Positive revisions to sales and earnings estimates in developed countries have hovered around 20% to 25%, respectively, over one-, three-, and six-month time periods....
As one measure of market volatility, we calculate the cumulative number of stocks in the MSCI World Index that open at least 2% higher (or lower) than the previous close over a 65-day time period. Extremes in the number of gaps often occur in conjunction...
Success in investing can many times come down to avoiding the major losers rather than always hitting home runs with one’s winners. Correct sector allocation plays an important role in sidestepping potential landmines that out there in the market....
