S&P 500 Tag

The Battle Of Risk Free Assets And What It Means For Stocks

22 Aug, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

When it comes to safe haven investments, the world generally invests in two assets: US Treasuries or German Bunds. Recently, bunds seem to be the preferred ”risk-free” investment of choice by a wide margin which has historically been a negative signal for stocks ....

Update on VIX Curve Inversion

06 Aug, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

A few weeks ago, we noted the relationship between an inverted VIX curve and declines in the S&P500 (see here).  Taking a longer-term view, we see that the last few years have been relatively quiet–characterized by few, intermittent inversions and minor pullbacks in the index....

Small Caps Stocks Took A Beating In July

01 Aug, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The S&P Small Cap 600 has now underperformed the S&P 500 by over 10% since March. July was particularly brutal as small caps underperformed by nearly 6% in that month alone. This relative underperformance has been somewhat predictable given what the Fed has been up...

Junk Bond Spreads Accelerating Higher – Not Good for Stocks

01 Aug, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Earlier this week as asked what junk bonds know that stocks don’t. Since then junk spreads to the 10-year US Treasury bond have widened another 20bps as they have accelerated higher. Given the 88% correlation with stocks over the last year, this is something that...

What Do Junk Bonds Know That Stocks Don’t?

28 Jul, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

From a theoretical standpoint equity and high yield debt are not all that different. In both cases consideration of the return of one’s capital plays a large part in the investment process since both forms of capital are at the bottom of the capital structure....

An Inverted VIX Curve and the S&P 500

18 Jul, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Demand for increasing protection against stock losses increased yesterday, as the price of the VIX jumped relative to the price of its own futures.  In the past, an inversion between the spot and 3-month prices has signaled a decline in the S&P 500....

Friday Flush – S&P 500 Charts Edition

11 Jul, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

We usually prefer in our blog posts to give the reader a nice linear explanation of what we are laying out in front of them. Sometimes, however, when we are perusing our chart library we find a variety of charts that are interesting but are...

Stocks Have Gone on Another Statistical Run

26 Jun, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Many of our readers are probably familiar with the concept of a ”random walk” in which stocks are just as likely to go up as down on any given day (i.e. the outcome is a coin flip)....

Lumber has Entered a Bear Market

10 Jun, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Lumber prices are now down nearly 21% from the December peak of $375/bft and are now trading at $297.6/btf. We’ve noted several times how lumber prices (a measure of the health of the US economy) have completely disconnected from stock prices, and today’s action confirms...