Over the last 4.5 months the spread between the 30 year treasury yields and 10 year treasury yields has fallen from 112bps to 85bps, a difference of 27bps, and that spread has been falling fast in recent weeks....
The boom-bust barometer, which compares commodity prices to unemployment claims as gauge for economic activity, has had a strong correlation to the S&P 500 over the past 10 years. However, the boom-bust barometer has not confirmed the new highs made by the equity markets so...
Even amid geopolitical turmoil S&P 500 futures (blue line) and the JPY/USD exchange rate (orange line) are still moving in virtual lock step. But from a longer term perspective we are starting to see some cracks in the correlation. We will be monitoring closely which...
Over the past 10 years the S&P 500 Price to Earnings ratio and the real trade-weighted dollar index have had a nice correlation. As the dollar has strengthened P/E ratios have expanded (with a three quarter lead for the dollar)....
The JPY/USD cross is once again going tick for tick with S&P 500 futures as investor appetite for risk did a 180 overnight: With the euro selling down to 1.355 vs the USD, the USD is the big winner on the day: As gold struggles:...
As the emerging world experiences its fifth broad stock market selloff in as many years we thought it timely to review just what happened during the previous four selloff instances so we can have a better idea of what to expect from both EMs and...
We’ve noted on numerous occasions the almost eerie relationship between S&P 500 strength and the USD/JPY weakness and so far this year (and today) we have more of the same....
With 15 minutes left in the trading day the S&P 500 has put in a new low for the year and extended the YTD loss to 1.6%....
One unfortunate reality of market cap weighted indices is that statistics derived from these indices are inherently skewed by a handful of megacap companies. The P/E ratio is no exception....
A common theme off the bear market low of 3/9/2009 has been the relative outperformance of small-cap stocks vs large-cap stocks. This latest advance since October 1st has actually seen large cap stocks outperforming small cap stocks....
In an almost perfect ”taper on” sort of manner, stocks had their worst day since November 7th, the 10-year treasury bond sold off by 4bps, gold finished down $9.00, and the euro rose to the highest level since mid-October, and November 2011 before that....
The Boom-Bust Baromter (CRB Raw Industiral Index/Initial unemployment Claims) has rallied since making a low on October 4th back to almost new highs. If the market keeps pushing higher will the Boom-Bust Barometer be able to keep pace?...
The Japanese yen carry trade, in which one barrows low cost yen to speculate in foreign markets with higher interest rates or slower money printers, is performing well today as it goes almost tick for tick with the S&P 500....
Over the last few years the range of intraday price swings for the S&P 500 (the intraday high minus the intraday low) has been a good indicator of short to intermediate term peaks and troughs in the market....
It is common for equity prices and inflation expectations to generally move in the same direction. Stock prices are a leading indicator for economic activity....
