S&P 500 Tag

Stocks, Bonds and Gold all Stumble as Euro Soars

11 Dec, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

In an almost perfect ”taper on” sort of manner, stocks had their worst day since November 7th, the 10-year treasury bond sold off by 4bps, gold finished down $9.00, and the euro rose to the highest level since mid-October, and November 2011 before that....

The Yen Carry Trade is Alive and Well Today

06 Dec, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The Japanese yen carry trade, in which one barrows low cost yen to speculate in foreign markets with higher interest rates or slower money printers, is performing well today as it goes almost tick for tick with the S&P 500....

It’s a No Taper Day Today on Wall Street

22 Nov, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Despite Fed minutes that left the door open to a December taper contingent on better economic stats, the markets are taking the relatively upbeat data over the last two days in stride....

What is the Metal with a PhD in Economics Telling Us?

13 Nov, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Copper has rather quietly displayed a good amount of weakness over the last few weeks and is down another 2.2% today. We highlight this because copper, having so many industrial and construction related uses, tends to be a good thermometer by which to measure the...

Junk Bond Spreads Hit New Cycle Low

05 Nov, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The spread between junk bond yields and the yield on the 10 year treasury bond hit a new cycle low yesterday, confirming the strength we’ve seen in the equity markets....

Shiller PE Hits New Cycle High of 24.4

04 Nov, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Multiples continued to expand in October as the Shiller PE hit a five year high of 24.4. Based on about 120 years of data, this implies a prospective 10 year nominal annualized return for stocks of something close to 0%....

Latest Rally Not Confirmed By Banks

01 Nov, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Banks, and financials in general, play an important role in the performance of stock indices. Many bull markets are characterized by the outperformance of banks relative to the overall market. The latest rally in the S&P has not been confirmed by the relative outperformance of...

Taper Trade Back In Play

01 Nov, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The taper trade appears to be back on this week.  Some of the basic symptoms of this trade are: 1) higher interest rates, 2) higher US dollar, 3) lower gold and 4) weakening stocks.  Charts below showing the last 10 days of activity reveal this...

Fundamental Indicator Disconfirms Last 100 Point Move in S&P 500

28 Oct, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

We use a very basic fundamental  indicator to capture movements in the economy and compare them to stock prices.  The fundamental indicator has two, equally weighted, pieces: 1) the CRB Raw Industrial index divided by unemployment claims, and 2) Consumer Comfort index....

Treasuries Yields Slammed Lower as Safe Havens Catch Bid

22 Oct, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

10 year treasury yields finished 9bps lower on the day today hitting the lowest level since mid-July while gold, silver, copper and the euro all caught a decent bid.  The divergence between S&P 500 futures and the 10 year note is now at the most...