5-Year TIPS Implied Breakeven Inflation Diverging Further From S&P 500December 04, 2013
It is common for equity prices and inflation expectations to generally move in the same direction. Stock prices are a leading indicator for economic activity. So usually when stock prices are rising, this is an indication of stronger future economic growth which then eventually leads to higher inflation in the economy (and higher expectations of future inflation). This relationship has broken down during 2013. With a little chart magic you can that when these two series “cross” it tends to be at rough inflection points for equities. As usual, only time will tell if past relationships still hold in the future. However, the outlook for US inflation remains muted so a rise in breakeven inflation seems more improbable than a fall in equity prices at the moment.