United States Tag

Not So Fast on the Cyclical Chinese Recovery

14 Nov, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

This morning investors were unfortunately treated to a rather disappointing package of October Chinese economic data. Three of the most important hard data series were reported: fixed asset investment, industrial production and retail sales. Each was lower than the previous month and missed expectations, suggesting...

US Corporate Profit Margins Are Coming Back Down To Earth

29 May, by Knowledge Leaders Team in News

Today wasn't the best day for US economic releases. The 2nd revision of 1Q GDP was (unsurprisingly) revised down from 0.2% to -0.7%. The release that caught our eye, however, was the initial release of corporate profits in the US for the first quarter. After-tax...

Inflation Expectations Are Turning Back Over In The US

28 May, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

TIPS derived breakeven inflation expectations have started to fall once again in May. For a little context, starting in last June, breakeven inflation started a steady march lower that lasted until January of this year. Since that time, we have seen a rebound in inflation...

San Francisco Real Estate Is 75% Above Housing Crisis Lows

26 May, by Knowledge Leaders Team in News

The latest (March) Case-Shiller Home Price Index was released this morning and there were several noteworthy data points in the report. First, our 3-month diffusion index that measures the number of cities where prices are higher now than they were three months ago increased by...

Stocks And Bonds Remain At A Historically High Correlation

18 May, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

For most investors, a negative or low positive correlation between equity prices and long-term bond prices is a preferred and time-tested way of keeping one's portfolio volatility low. However, this has been very difficult over the past two years as the four-year rolling correlation between...

Long-End Of US Yield Curve Suggests A Stronger Yen

13 May, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

The relationship between the Japanese Yen and the spread between the US 30-year treasury yield and US 10-year yield has had a very tight negative correlation (-0.85) over the past 10-years (since 1986 when the bond spread series begins the correlation is -0.61). Since the...

Total Assets At The Fed At Six Month Lows

04 May, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

The quiet, subtle decline in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet continued in April. As of May 1st, the Fed’s balance was at $4.47 trillion. While undoubtedly still incredibly large, the Fed’s balance sheet is about $45 billion less than its peak level on January 16,...

The Step Down In Long-Term US Growth Rates Breaks Lower

29 Apr, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

From 1974 to 2007, the long-term US growth rate in real GDP generally fell between 3-3.5% on annualized basis (excluding the v-shaped bounce from 1982-1984).  We define long-term here by looking at the 10-year annualized percentage change. With the 1Q now in the books, this...

Manufacturing Survey Showdown – Who Got It Right?

15 Apr, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

US industrial production in March declined the most month-over-month since 2009. Weather again played a role as colder weather in February led to a spike in utilities output last month and this month we saw the effects of the unwinding of that spike....

Potential Trend Change In American Driving Habits

10 Apr, by Knowledge Leaders Team in News

The second half of 2014 and the first month of 2015 (latest data available) shows a significant increase in total miles driven and total miles driven per capita. Total miles driven on an annual basis has reached an all-time high. The 2.12% year-over-year change is...