A common theme off the bear market low of 3/9/2009 has been the relative outperformance of small-cap stocks vs large-cap stocks. This latest advance since October 1st has actually seen large cap stocks outperforming small cap stocks....
In an almost perfect ”taper on” sort of manner, stocks had their worst day since November 7th, the 10-year treasury bond sold off by 4bps, gold finished down $9.00, and the euro rose to the highest level since mid-October, and November 2011 before that....
The Boom-Bust Baromter (CRB Raw Industiral Index/Initial unemployment Claims) has rallied since making a low on October 4th back to almost new highs. If the market keeps pushing higher will the Boom-Bust Barometer be able to keep pace?...
The Japanese yen carry trade, in which one barrows low cost yen to speculate in foreign markets with higher interest rates or slower money printers, is performing well today as it goes almost tick for tick with the S&P 500....
Over the last few years the range of intraday price swings for the S&P 500 (the intraday high minus the intraday low) has been a good indicator of short to intermediate term peaks and troughs in the market....
It is common for equity prices and inflation expectations to generally move in the same direction. Stock prices are a leading indicator for economic activity....
Despite Fed minutes that left the door open to a December taper contingent on better economic stats, the markets are taking the relatively upbeat data over the last two days in stride....
Copper has rather quietly displayed a good amount of weakness over the last few weeks and is down another 2.2% today. We highlight this because copper, having so many industrial and construction related uses, tends to be a good thermometer by which to measure the...
The spread between junk bond yields and the yield on the 10 year treasury bond hit a new cycle low yesterday, confirming the strength we’ve seen in the equity markets....
Multiples continued to expand in October as the Shiller PE hit a five year high of 24.4. Based on about 120 years of data, this implies a prospective 10 year nominal annualized return for stocks of something close to 0%....
Banks, and financials in general, play an important role in the performance of stock indices. Many bull markets are characterized by the outperformance of banks relative to the overall market. The latest rally in the S&P has not been confirmed by the relative outperformance of...
The taper trade appears to be back on this week. Some of the basic symptoms of this trade are: 1) higher interest rates, 2) higher US dollar, 3) lower gold and 4) weakening stocks. Charts below showing the last 10 days of activity reveal this...
We use a very basic fundamental indicator to capture movements in the economy and compare them to stock prices. The fundamental indicator has two, equally weighted, pieces: 1) the CRB Raw Industrial index divided by unemployment claims, and 2) Consumer Comfort index....
So far the contraction in commercial paper has not had a negative impact on stocks, but history would suggest that this is a red flag....
10 year treasury yields finished 9bps lower on the day today hitting the lowest level since mid-July while gold, silver, copper and the euro all caught a decent bid. The divergence between S&P 500 futures and the 10 year note is now at the most...
