Picking Up Signs Of Economic Distress In The USFebruary 04, 2015
Recent US economic data has been disappointing. While perhaps statistical noise, more weak signs continue to mount. Let’s start with the durable goods orders reported recently. The headline stat is a very volatile series because aircraft and/or military orders can be quite lumpy. With that said, there has been a big drop in total durable goods orders in the last six months. Historically, using monthly data, the level of total durable goods orders has an 82% correlation with the S&P 500.