The Market Is Pricing In Two Rate Hikes In 2015 (And Four In 2016)March 11, 2015
According to Fed Fund futures, the market currently expects about 2 rate hikes by December 2015 (assuming the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points each time). Fed Funds futures is pricing the Fed Funds Rate at 54 basis points by December 2015. The market was most optimistic regarding delaying fed hikes in mid-January when the market was pricing in only about one and half hikes for 2015. It is interesting to note, however, that in first 10 months of 2014 the market was expecting roughly three hikes in 2015 so expectations have still fallen somewhat.
The market is currently pricing in a Fed Funds Rate of 141 basis points for the end of 2016. Expectations for higher rates in 2016 have increased significantly since the beginning of February. On February 2nd, the market was pricing in a Fed Funds Rate of only 104 basis points by December 2016.