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Odds of Euro Break-Up Are on the Rise January 27, 2015

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

The likelihood of a country leaving the euro zone rose once again, according to sentix’s Euro Break-Up Index (EBI).

Correct Sector Allocation Unlocks The Power Of Compounding January 27, 2015

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

We talk a lot about sector allocation. It is incredibly important for investors, especially over the long-term. The correct sector allocation can lead to massive outperformance while the wrong sector allocation significantly increases your career risk.

Bond Yields, Crude, Copper all Fall to New Lows as Dow Plunges and Gold is Bid January 27, 2015

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

The trend is your friend, so they say…as long as you are on the right side of it. That saying is particularly relevant to the trend in bond yields (30-year down 7bps) as today we get new all-time lows in the US long bond despite the large net short positioning of speculators.

$200 Lumber? January 26, 2015

By Knowledge Leaders Team in News

The last time 10 year TIPS derived breakeven inflation was this low in the autumn of 2010, lumber was around $200/ft. The break in inflation expectations since last August suggests lower lumber prices are ahead.

Traders Still Hugely Short Treasury Bonds January 26, 2015

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

Shorting long duration treasury bonds really is becoming the modern day widow maker, as we noted last August. Yet, despite all the pain endured since last August for anyone shorting treasuries, traders still maintain a historically large short position in futures and options on the 10-year.

Commodities Look Awful But A Few ETFs May Have Bottomed Out January 26, 2015

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

2014 was a rough year for commodities (and not just for oil).

Europe is Not Japan: Expensive Financial Stocks may not Rally Hard with QE January 23, 2015

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

Since the ECB announced its open ended QE program we have seen numerous parallels being drawn with Japan’s amped-up QE program announced in April of 2013, but telegraphed in late 2012. One of those parallels is that like Japanese financial stocks, Europe’s financial stocks should experience a sharp rally in the coming months.

Weak Close Indicator In Detail January 22, 2015

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

Question: I am an avid reader of your blog site and I commend you on the truly great work. You always identify the bigger picture macro trends and thematics with clarity.

In Case You Missed It… January 22, 2015

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

The EUR is trading at levels not seen in over a decade, in the wake of the ECB’s big QE announcement today.

Swiss Yield Curve Is Negative Out To 10 Years January 22, 2015

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

Has any government debt market ever had such a negative yield curve as Switzerland? One-year Swiss government bonds are currently ”yielding” -114 basis points. One week ago, one-year bonds were at -38 basis points and one month ago one-year bonds were at -23 basis points. Astonishingly, 10-year Swiss government bonds are ”yielding” -20 basis points.

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