News

US Existing Home Sales Drop To 9-Month Low February 23, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in News

US existing home sales fell by 4.9% in January to 4.82 million. This is the lowest level since April of last year. The western region remains by far the weakest region while the south remains the strongest. Months supply remained relatively steady at 4.7 months worth of supply in the market.

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Copper Price Rolling Back Over February 10, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in News

The price of the all important copper appears to be heading lower once again after what in retrospect looks like a dead cat bounce.

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A Contrary Opinion On The US Employment Report February 06, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in News

One of the main features of the current recovery is the drop in the potential growth rate.  In every other recovery since WW2, real GDP has risen back to potential as the recovery got going, thereby closing the output gap.  This time around, the output gap has narrowed because potential GDP has been revised down.

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Americans Are Driving The Most Since 2008 February 02, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in News

The latest data (November) out of the US Department of Transportation for miles driven on US roads shows that more miles were driven on an annualized basis in November than in any month since July 2008.

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$200 Lumber? January 26, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in News

The last time 10 year TIPS derived breakeven inflation was this low in the autumn of 2010, lumber was around $200/ft.  The break in inflation expectations since last August suggests lower lumber prices are ahead.

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CFNAI Makes 94-Month High, Existing Home Sales Disappoint December 22, 2014

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in News

As has seemingly been the case all year (or maybe even the past four years), we had a mixed bag of economic releases today in the United States. On the positive side, we had the Chicago Fed National Activity Index post the highest monthly number since December 2006.

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Junk Bond Spreads Widest Since August 2012 December 17, 2014

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in News

About a month ago, we noted that the spread between high yield bonds and treasuries was not confirming the all-time high in the S&P 500. Since that time, we have had a slight turnover in the equity market but an even larger move in junk bonds.

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