The latest (March) Case-Shiller Home Price Index was released this morning and there were several noteworthy data points in the report. First, our 3-month diffusion index that measures the number of cities where prices are higher now than they were three months ago increased by…
Read MoreIn a new white paper released today, we identify a stock market anomaly. The Knowledge Effect is the tendency of highly innovative companies to deliver excess returns for investors. Academic researchers first discovered an association between a firm’s knowledge capital and its stock performance. Our…
Read MoreThe percent of stocks in the MSCI World Index that have had positive EPS revisions compared to six months ago currently stands at 45%. Over the past 7+ years, the average level of this statistic is 56%.
Read MoreThe second half of 2014 and the first month of 2015 (latest data available) shows a significant increase in total miles driven and total miles driven per capita. Total miles driven on an annual basis has reached an all-time high. The 2.12% year-over-year change is the largest YoY change in nearly 10-years (Feb 2005).
Read MoreUSD based investors should be wary of Canadian banks. Canadian banks have taken a beating in 2015 and the near-term trend doesn’t look to be abating anytime soon. The average USD performance of a Canadian bank year-to-date is a ”correction” worthy -13%.
Read MoreCorelogic’s home price index came out this morning and showed that home prices across the board, including and excluding distressed sales, are at a 7-year high in the US. Single-family combined homes including distressed sales rose by 1.12% MoM in March. Excluding distressed sales, it rose by 1.45% MoM.
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Upwardly revised projections for growth as well as inflation (details available here), combined with stronger than expected macro data in the Euro Zone… …and fears of a bubble in bonds, as yields extend into negative territory further out on the maturity spectrum… …have raised questions regarding the possibility that the ECB could decide to temper
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The latest (February) construction spending report was released by the Census Bureau today. This report provides a ”monthly estimate of total dollar value construction done in the US” for both new structures and improvements to existing structures. It also covers both public and private projects.
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It’s become a running theme, at least since last September, but the latest release of CPI numbers from around the world has brought our simple average World CPI proxy to its lowest level since the financial crisis. For the period ending in February, our World CPI proxy hit just 1.01% year-over-year.
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In the few minutes since the release of the FOMC statement and since the Fed dropped the word ”patient” as expected, the S&P 500 has risen by 30 points. Here are a few takeaways from the latest Fed projections and interest rate dot plot. Real GDP expectations have again been lowered.
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February housing starts were released this morning and they were pretty terrible. Expectations were for starts to come in around 1.048 million. Instead, housing starts came in at a paltry 897K. Housing starts are now at the level as they were in January 2013.
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The recent move higher in longer dated US treasury bonds has been sharp and fast and has caught plenty of people off guard. The 10-year bond yield has moved from 1.68% to 2.12% while the 30-year has moved from 2.25% to 2.72% in a little over a month.
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World import and export prices finished 2014 with the largest year-over-year decline since 2009 according to the CPB world trade monitor. Export prices declined by 9.2% YoY% and import prices declined by 8.8%. No area in the world escaped the deflation in trade prices as the decline in prices was broad based.
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US existing home sales fell by 4.9% in January to 4.82 million. This is the lowest level since April of last year. The western region remains by far the weakest region while the south remains the strongest. Months supply remained relatively steady at 4.7 months worth of supply in the market.
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The price of the all important copper appears to be heading lower once again after what in retrospect looks like a dead cat bounce.
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