Equity allocators should take note that performance trends in North America are deteriorating while they are picking up outside the US. In the table below, I show the recent performance of the sectors within our KLSU North America index, which captures the top 85% of…
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The USD is off to its worst start since 1985, down about 9%. In the chart below (courtesy of Bianco Research), it appears the USD is tracing its performance in 1985 quite closely. Of course, 1985 was the worst year for the USD in almost…
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Back in December 2016, we discussed our expectation for lower longer-term US interest rates, which we used to justify an aversion to financial stocks. This expectation played out. We also discussed our rotation into the resources sector. We suggested that sometimes rotations can be bumpy,…
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There are three basic ways to manage the risk of an equity portfolio: Diversify, by owning a collection of stocks from different industries Hedge, by shorting stocks or equity futures Buy insurance, like buying an out-of-the-money put option. The essence of diversification is choosing assets…
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A recent run of weaker economic data, highlighted by the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) plunging to -32 from 58 in mid-March has caught the attention of the US Treasury bond market. In the chart below, I plot the CESI against US 10 Year Treasuries….
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In our new quarterly update report, Portfolio Manager Steven Vannelli, CFA, discusses the investment team’s recent analysis on two topics, including: 1. New portfolio opportunities. Huge innovation in the energy sector – and the US Shale Revolution specifically — has manifested into new portfolio opportunities. The US…
Read MoreThis quarter we discuss our work navigating a global equity rotation from defensive-driven leadership to cyclical-driven leadership. We analyze economic growth trends and our belief that we are in the closest thing to a synchronized global upturn that we’ve seen in years. We discuss three liquidity…
Read MoreThere is a new battlefront in the money management business. New smart beta ETFs are entering the market to compete against actively managed mutual funds. These funds will be formidable competition, offering the possibility of superior performance — traditionally the province only of actively managed…
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After the recent correction, many investors are asking how to respond in their portfolios. I’m recommending clients hold on to equity exposure, even consider increasing it. Below, I run through my case. Reason 1: Valuations For the first time since 1956, the dividend yield on…
Read MoreETF Trends reported the other day that total ETF assets under management are expected to double by 2020, translating into roughly $740 billion per year of flows into ETFs (link to story here). If we look at just equity related ETFs, the growth dynamic is…
Read MoreFor the last five years the European technology sector has been locked in a trading range relative to the MSCI All Country World Index (USD). Recently, however, European technology stocks have been performing quite well. On an equal weighted basis, they have been the second…
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Health care stocks have been the leadership sector in the MSCI World, and many (such as biotech) have reached some pretty elevated valuations. Most stocks in the sector have been in multi-year bull markets trends, outperforming the MSCI All Country World Index significantly. In our…
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Profitability and investment are inextricably linked through time. A company’s investment decisions today will ultimately drive its profitability level tomorrow. The fruits of a company’s investment decisions eventually show up in profitability metrics such as free cash flow margin, operating cash flow margin, and return…
Read MoreAfter our recent call, we received an insightful question about how we view research and development (R&D) because surely not all R&D is productive and profitable?
Read MoreMarket-cap weighted indexes such as the MSCI global equity indexes are commonly used reference points for investment benchmarking. In these indexes, the market cap of the top 10% of the stocks is generally 50% of the market cap of the index.
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