10-year Treasury Tag

How Much Longer Can Speculators Get of Bonds?

27 Jun, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Markets

The last six months has seen one of the most incredible changes in investor positioning in 10-year US treasury bonds in recent history. Back in early January, around the time rates peaked, non-commercial traders (AKA speculators) were net short 10-year options and futures contracts by...

Could the Bond-Bund Spread Widen Even Further?

12 May, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

We first discussed the historic extreme in the spread between German Bunds and U.S. Treasuries last April (here).  And that relationship has continued since, propelling the difference (in red, below) to levels well above those reached over the last two decades:                 (Germany in blue, U.S. in...

Traders Still Hugely Short Treasury Bonds

26 Jan, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

Shorting long duration treasury bonds really is becoming the modern day widow maker, as we noted last August. Yet, despite all the pain endured since last August for anyone shorting treasuries, traders still maintain a historically large short position in futures and options on the...

Is the Bond Market Poised for a Short Covering Rally?

14 Oct, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The bullish action in the treasury bond market continued today with the 10-year yield down another 9bps and the 30-year yield down another 6bps. Bond yields are at levels not seen since the commencing of the ”taper tantrum” in the middle of 2013....

The Modern Day Widow Maker Trade is to Short Treasuries

28 Aug, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

As treasury yields plunge again today to new 1-year lows (the 10 and 30-year treasury bond yields are both down 3bps to 2.33% and 3.07%, respectively), we are reminded of a popular trade over the last decade to short Japanese government bonds, which has aptly...