10-year Treasury Tag

Could the Bond-Bund Spread Widen Even Further?

12 May, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

We first discussed the historic extreme in the spread between German Bunds and U.S. Treasuries last April (here).  And that relationship has continued since, propelling the difference (in red, below) to levels well above those reached over the last two decades:                 (Germany in blue, U.S. in...

Traders Still Hugely Short Treasury Bonds

26 Jan, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

Shorting long duration treasury bonds really is becoming the modern day widow maker, as we noted last August. Yet, despite all the pain endured since last August for anyone shorting treasuries, traders still maintain a historically large short position in futures and options on the...

Is the Bond Market Poised for a Short Covering Rally?

14 Oct, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The bullish action in the treasury bond market continued today with the 10-year yield down another 9bps and the 30-year yield down another 6bps. Bond yields are at levels not seen since the commencing of the ”taper tantrum” in the middle of 2013....

The Modern Day Widow Maker Trade is to Short Treasuries

28 Aug, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

As treasury yields plunge again today to new 1-year lows (the 10 and 30-year treasury bond yields are both down 3bps to 2.33% and 3.07%, respectively), we are reminded of a popular trade over the last decade to short Japanese government bonds, which has aptly...

Bond are Signaling P/E Compression for the Stock Market

15 May, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Bonds have had a great last few days as yields have fallen by the largest three-day amount since April of 2013. But, this rally in treasury bonds began at the start of the year and the ten-year now yields about 50bps less than it did...

Is the Yen Hinting at a December Taper?

12 Dec, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

We’ve been highlighting how S&P 500 futures and the YEN/USD cross have basically been moving tick for tick recently, so we thought it prudent to point out that the relationship has basically dissolved over the last two days, and in fact has started to reverse....

Stocks, Bonds and Gold all Stumble as Euro Soars

11 Dec, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

In an almost perfect ”taper on” sort of manner, stocks had their worst day since November 7th, the 10-year treasury bond sold off by 4bps, gold finished down $9.00, and the euro rose to the highest level since mid-October, and November 2011 before that....