PMI Tag

Not So Fast on the Cyclical Chinese Recovery

14 Nov, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

This morning investors were unfortunately treated to a rather disappointing package of October Chinese economic data. Three of the most important hard data series were reported: fixed asset investment, industrial production and retail sales. Each was lower than the previous month and missed expectations, suggesting...

Is the Economic Slowdown Over or Just Getting Started? Part 2

01 Mar, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

In Part 1 of this series we talked about the lagged effect of interest rates and money growth, AKA "financial conditions" broadly speaking, on economic growth. We noted that changes in interest rates tend to impact economic growth with about a 2 year lag and...

How Much More Can We Eek Out of the Econ Data?

26 Oct, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

Several months ago we wrote that looser financial conditions should support economic data and stocks through year end. So far so good. Since then economic indicators such as the Markit manufacturing PMI have continued to chug higher and US stocks are up about 6%. With...

More Evidence of China Slowing Permeating Asia – 8/6/2015

06 Aug, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

In today's edition of More Evidence of China Slowing Permeating Asia we will focus on the recently released PMI data. Generally all the data tell a similar story - that there is a synchronized slowdown taking place in Asia - though Japan may be bucking...

Momentum In The Global Manufacturing Sector May Be Turning Positive

20 Apr, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

From a momentum standpoint, global manufacturing peaked in September 2013 and has been steadily slowing, at least in terms of breadth, since then. In order to understand the global manufacturing sector we have created a variety of diffusion indices using the Markit Manufacturing PMI Data....

Fed PMIs Were Almost Universally Weaker In January

17 Feb, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

We had our first look at manufacturing conditions in February (NY Fed Empire Survey came in below consensus by a few points) and tomorrow we have the industrial production report for the US. What should we expect when that report comes out?...

Unimpressive Manufacturing PMI Results Out of Europe

02 Feb, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

Markit’s PMI Manufacturing survey data released today showed little change in euro area countries’ headline readings, as most continued to hover around the all-important 50 level: The largest monthly improvement was in France (~2 points) while Ireland’s survey fell the most (~2 points), and no...

Europe Flash PMI Better, Not Fabulous

16 Dec, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

While today’s better than expected rise in the flash PMI indicator (black line) for the euro zone is a welcome surprise, it would seem that it will take quite a bit more improvement before we can reasonably expect substantial progress in the recovery of important...

Retail PMI Offers Little Consolation in the Wake of Disappointing Retail Sales

06 Nov, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Following yesterday’s rather disappointing retail sales data release, Markit’s Retail PMI data (released today) were not very inspiring either: While Germany managed to register marginal growth, the rest of the region’s major economies remain below 50, indicating continued contraction: Employment fell for the first time...

Australian Consumer Confidence Points to Lower Output in US and China

10 Sep, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Australia, being one of the world’s biggest commodity producers, finds itself at the very beginning of the global supply chain for infrastructure investment and many manufactured products. It makes sense then, that magnitude and directional changes in the pace of global investment and consumption would...

US Manufacturing Strength Stands Alone

02 Sep, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The US ISM Manufacturing index surged to a three-year high today at 59 for August. The Markit Manufacturing PMI for the US made a 52-month high as that index rose to 57.9. However, the Markit Global Manufacturing PMI is only moderately above the expansion level...