Decent Gains in European Car Registrations Obscure Underlying Slowdown in Momentum

July 17, 2014
By Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

In June, new vehicle registrations in Europe maintained a positive year-over-year growth rate for the tenth month in a row– a trend not seen since before the global financial crisis.

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Though registrations fell nearly 2% in Germany, trends remained more positive in the four other largest European economies.  Notably, vehicle registrations in Spain have experienced double-digit growth versus a year ago in each of the last four months.

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Renault continues to lead other auto manufacturers (as we discussed a while back, here), with registrations growing more than 20%yoy in June.

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Whether these positive trends can continue remains to be seen, however.  Sales in July and August are usually the weakest of the year.  In addition, a number of uptrends in our relative strength point-and-figure charts seem to be easing and/or encountering resistance more recently.

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As the charts illustrate, the average daily percent change for the group has declined from +0.13% over the longer-term (252 days) to -0.02% for the most recent 31 day period.

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On a relative basis, the average daily percent change has gone from a +0.7% to a -0.7% when comparing the longer-term to more recent moves in prices.

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