Trusty Copper Signaling More Dis-inflation, But It’s Not AloneAugust 03, 2015
With the economic weakness in China permeating Asia and EMs generally, we should not be at all surprised to see copper making a new cycle low, and it is (chart 1). But Dr. Copper is hardly alone in providing a dis-inflationary signal. Indeed the broad-based weakness in commodities (charts 2-4), recent strength in bonds (chart 5), and outperformance of growth counter cyclicals – staples and health care stocks (chart 6) – are all sending the same message: the world appears to be getting more dis-inflationary, not less. This is perhaps one reason that Knowledge Leaders – highly innovative companies – have outperformed by such a wide margin so far this year (charts 7-8). Knowledge Leaders tend to have less debt and through innovation have insulated themselves from broad competition, both good things in a world where top line growth may be hard to come by.