Yesterday we highlighted here the fact that stock indices are making new highs, but individual stock participation in the rally has waned. We showed that the percent of stocks making new 100 day highs has narrowed even though the major regional MSCI indices keep advancing.
Read MoreA quick review of yields relative to Germany in the last few years… Spain Italy Greece Portugal France
Read More
Earlier this week, we saw data releases for consumer prices and unemployment in Europe: This morning, Draghi announced that key rates would remain unchanged while affirming the ECB’s commitment to ’consider all instruments available’ in order to cope with ’lowflation’ in the Eurozone.
Read MoreWe had two major economic releases today that suggest that the first quarter GDP in the US may be lower than previously expected. First, the trade deficit unexpectedly widened to $42.3 billion in February from $39.3 billion in January. The consensus was for a slightly narrowing of the deficit.
Read MoreWith a little trading left to go, the the 10-year treasury bond is about to set a 2 1/2 month high in terms of yield. The last time the 10-year closed above 2.80% was on January 22nd.
Read MoreA few weeks ago we highlighted here how new highs in stock indices have not been confirmed by the percent of stocks also making new highs. This is a symptom of narrowing individual stock participation in the advance of broad indices and has been going on now for about five months.
Read MoreThe latest data out for US house prices show an increase in February according to CoreLogic. Both including and excluding distressed sales, house prices rose in February after stagnating in the latter half of 2013. Meanwhile, mortgage applications for both purchasing and refinancing remain at depressed levels.
Read More
We have hit on the odd stock performance in March a few times in the last couple of weeks (see here, here, and here). Now that we are officially in the second quarter, let’s take a look back at the performance during the month of March and the first quartet in general.
Read MoreIf you’re like us and had been noticing that basically every Chinese economic data release this year has missed expectations then you won’t be surprised (pardon the pun) to see the below chart.
Read MoreToday saw the release of Japanese industrial production, the Markit Manufacturing PMI, and housing starts. Unfortunately this latest package of data does little to alter the ongoing trend of a deteriorating Japanese economy. Indeed, industrial production saw the largest one month drop since the earthquake and tsunami and the global financial crisis before that.
Read MoreWe had two regional manufacturing surveys released today: Chicago PMI and the Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Survey. Consensus estimates had expected the Chicago PMI to come in at 59 instead the headline index came in at 55.9 for the slowest reading since August. The Texas Manufacturing Survey headline improved from 0.3 to 4.9 in March.
Read MoreOver the past several weeks we’ve noticed a clustering of negative outside reversal days (defined as days when both the intraday high is greater than the previous day’s intraday high and the close is lower than previous day’s intraday low).
Read MoreIn the latest piece of evidence that Abenomics is having the effect of suppressing real income and expenditure, new data out today reveals that real income (red line, right axis) is down 1.3% YoY and real personal consumption expenditure (blue line, left axis) is down 2.5% YoY.
Read MoreIn early February we mentioned that consumer discretionary was starting to show some cracks in their leadership status. And a few weeks ago we mentioned how richly valued this groups of stocks had become. Today we pick on Consumer Discretionary stocks again showing how they have been the true laggards YTD.
Read More
Over the last 4.5 months the spread between the 30 year treasury yields and 10 year treasury yields has fallen from 112bps to 85bps, a difference of 27bps, and that spread has been falling fast in recent weeks.
Read More