Uncategorized

Gold Stocks Lead Gains October 22, 2013

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

With the price of gold up another $23 today, after surging $40 last week, gold stocks are the leaders in the MSCI World index today. Adding fuel to the move is the plunge in the USD today, stepping down by half a point so far this morning.

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Japanese Real Exports Stagnate Again October 21, 2013

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

At the heart of Abenomics is the presumption (or hope?) that a lower yen will stimulate export volume. Indeed September exports denominated in yen were up about 11.5% year over year. But real exports were up just .4%.

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Stronger USD or Higher Inflation Expectations? October 21, 2013

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Over the last four years, the derived inflation expectation of 30 year US Treasury bonds have moved in tandem with US Dollar.  When the USD falls, inflation expectations rise, and when the USD rises, inflation expectations fall. Since mid-September, the US Dollar Index has fallen from over 82 to under 80.

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The Company We Keep October 18, 2013

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

QuestionWhat are speculators long right now? Answer1) Stocks – from the E-mini S&P500, to the E-mini NASDAQ, to the E-mini Dow, to the E-mini Russell 2000 QuestionWhat are speculators short right now?

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Short Rates Plunge October 17, 2013

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

In reaction to the deal to avert the debt ceiling, short rates have slammed back down.  The one month bill peaked at 35bps on Tuesday and is back down to 1bp today.

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More Positive Data Out of the UK October 17, 2013

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Today’s better than expected Retail Sales data follows a number of other positive releases:Will the improvements in employment, consumer confidence, house prices, and the Markit manufacturing survey be reflected in next week’s GDP release?Data for Q3 will be updated on Friday, October 25th:

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Will the Boom-Bust Barometer Bounce? October 17, 2013

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The Boom-Bust Barometer (Commodity Prices/Unemployment Claims) has had a very high correlation with stock prices over the past decade. The rise in unemployment claims has driven it lower. We will wait to see if the end of the government shutdown will bring unemployment claims back down. It was only modestly lower this week (-15k).

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Citi Economic Surpise Index & Counter-Cyclicals October 16, 2013

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Normally cyclical sectors outperform counter-cyclical sectors when the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is rising and underperform when it is falling.  The Citi Econ Surprise Index is now down since 9/12/13, having fallen over 25 points.

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