After yesterday’s testimony by Fed Chair Jerome Powell to the US House of Representatives I analyzed its sentiment on key issues compared to his previous four FOMC policy statements, using ChatGPT. The table below shows the results. Unsurprisingly, ChatGPT left the sentiment for both inflation and...
Tomorrow, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey will give us more information on US consumers’ inflation expectations. The survey respondents’ inflation expectations, as other analysts have pointed out, are highly correlated with gasoline prices, which rose in March by 3.7%. This survey, along with...
While many commentators scratched their heads at the Fed’s latest summary of economic projections (SEP), the market took its cue from Chairman Powell's suggestion the US economy can withstand a barrage of rate increases this year without negatively impacting growth. In addition to the SEP, the...
In our latest quarterly presentation in July, we noted how spare capacity in the economy may be much smaller than is generally perceived. We found out today the FOMC came to similar conclusions in their latest FOMC meeting....
The Federal Reserve kept to its taper program that has been in place throughout this year. Both bonds and stocks reacted positively to the news right on cue as the Fed announcement was released at 12pm MST. The latest Fed projections were largely in line...
