Since May 2020, the Chinese Yuan has defied the path of other emerging market currencies, strengthening by almost 12%. This has left it overvalued compared to other emerging market countries. While Yuan strength made sense in 2020 when the USD was weakening. It is curious that in...
A basic tautology that economists consider when thinking about monetary policy is the velocity of money. MV=PQ translates into Money*Velocity=Price*Quantity. Of course, price*quantity is nominal GDP while “M” is the money supply (for example, M2) while “V” is velocity, or the number of times the...
In this Mid-Quarter Update, we discuss our analysis on the following topics: -Recent readings on consumer confidence have rolled over. The surveys are validated by the stagnation in real consumer spending in the last few months. -In conjunction with the slowdown in house sales and durable goods...
TIPS derived breakeven inflation expectations have started to fall once again in May. For a little context, starting in last June, breakeven inflation started a steady march lower that lasted until January of this year. Since that time, we have seen a rebound in inflation...
It’s become a running theme, at least since last September, but the latest release of CPI numbers from around the world has brought our simple average World CPI proxy to its lowest level since the financial crisis. For the period ending in February, our World...
The latest Chinese CPI and PPI readings were released today and showed the lowest year-over-year change in CPI since 2009 and yet another negative PPI reading (chart 1)....
Since January 15th, 5-year TIPS derived breakeven inflation has increased 23 basis points from 105 basis points to 138 basis points. 10-year TIPS derived breakeven inflation has increased 16 basis points during this time and 30-year TIPS derived breakeven inflation has increased 8 basis points...
Our basic proxy for global inflation continues to fall further. The year-over-year change of the CPI of 33 countries (using a simple average) has fallen for eight straight months and now sits at just 1.42%....
All eyes seem to be on crude oil prices right now. Taking an average price of WTI and Brent as a proxy for global oil prices, oil is down over 33% year-to-date. In November alone, oil was down about 12%....
On October 16th, the US 10-year treasury yield closed at 2.15% and the US 30-year treasury yield closed at 2.93%. Since then, the 10-year has widened by 21 bps and the 30-year by 14 bps. Interestingly, the move up in yields has not been due...
Last month we mentioned how world inflation had reached a 56-month low. Well, the latest data (through August) shows world inflation, by our simple average of 33 countries year-over-year change in CPI, is creeping lower again. The latest reading stands at 1.65%....
Our world inflation proxy, which simply takes the equal-weighted, year-over-year change for 33 different countries CPI, hit its lowest level since November 2009. The proxy stands at 1.72% which is just lower than the level it hit in February....
Given the plunge in first quarter real GDP in the US, it is probably not surprisingly that the full year 2014 GDP estimates are falling as well. In fact since February, according to Consensus Economics, real GDP estimates for the US have fallen by 68...
World inflation, measured using the consumer price indices of 33 countries and the producer price indices of 22 countries, remains relative stable and low through the end of May. The average year-over-year change for consumer prices around the world was 1.85%. This is just slightly...
