Longer-Term Implied Inflation Expectations Haven’t Rebounded With Bond YieldsNovember 04, 2014
On October 16th, the US 10-year treasury yield closed at 2.15% and the US 30-year treasury yield closed at 2.93%. Since then, the 10-year has widened by 21 bps and the 30-year by 14 bps. Interestingly, the move up in yields has not been due to an increase in inflation expectations. 10-year TIPS implied breakeven inflation has increased by only 7 basis points and 30-year TIPS implied breakeven inflation has increased by only 3 basis points since October 16th. As inflation expectations have dropped, the market has pushed out its expectation of when the first rate hike will occur. According to Federal Funds Futures, the market is pricing in a Fed Funds Rate of just 10 basis points for January 2015 and 17 basis points for June 2015.