Treasury Bonds Tag

Stocks And Bonds Remain At A Historically High Correlation

18 May, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

For most investors, a negative or low positive correlation between equity prices and long-term bond prices is a preferred and time-tested way of keeping one's portfolio volatility low. However, this has been very difficult over the past two years as the four-year rolling correlation between...

Deja Vu All Over Again for the Long Bond?

05 May, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

The 30-year treasury bond has experienced a rather large selloff by historical standards over the last three months. Yields have risen from roughly 2.2% to almost 2.9% in just over three months - a nearly 25% increase in yield - putting it on par with...

“Well, you know this is a bull market [in government bonds]!”

01 Apr, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

The action in the US government bond market over the last several weeks has reminded us of a quote from one of our favorite books on investing, ”Reminiscences of a Stock Operator”. Those familiar with Reminiscences will recall several scenes in which young traders are gathered...

Commercial Traders The Most Long 30Y Treasuries Since Early 2014

18 Feb, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

Over the last five years the signal given by investor positioning in options and futures contracts on the 30-year treasury bond has proven prescient. Each time commercial traders have moved to a long position in the long bond rates have been near a peak....

Long Duration Bonds Seem Like The Right Play

30 Jan, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

The Barclays US Aggregate Treasury total return index is up nearly 6% year-over-year. This index has a modified duration of 5.75 years. Not a bad return considering the on-the-run 5-year treasury is currently yielding 118 basis points....

Long End Of The US Yield Curve Flattest Since Jan 2009

09 Dec, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The spread between 30-year treasury yields and 10-year treasury yields fell to 65 basis points yesterday which is the lowest spread since January 21st, 2009. Since April 2013, the spread has narrowed by 59 basis points. As the long end has flattened, the spread between...

TBond Yields Falling Back In Line with Taper

06 Oct, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

For about 15 days between the end of August and mid-September the action in the treasury bond market deviated from our model comparing bond yields to the change in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet....

Flattening Yield Curve and Strong Dollar go Hand in Hand

27 Aug, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

With today’s action in the bond market (30-year treasury yields made new 1-year lows, finishing down 6bps, and 10-year treasury bonds nearly made new 1-year lows, finishing down 4bps), the long end of the yield curve is the flattest it’s been since the fall of...