United States Tag

US Mortgage Apps Fall Again

13 Nov, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Mortgage Applications remain weak in the US. The move back up in rates recently would only seem to make this trend continue. US homebuilder stocks look like they will remain under pressure as well....

Asset Back Commercial Paper Continues Falling

12 Nov, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The asset backed commercial paper market was one of the signature signs of the shadow banking system leading up to the Great Recession. This market mechanism for creating credit has all but evaporated. From 2004 to 2007, the amount of ABCP outstanding nearly doubled....

Small Business Hiring Plans Slowdown

12 Nov, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The percentage of small businesses that are planning to increase hiring fell back 4 percentage points to 5% in October. Unfortunately, in this recovery 10% of firms planning on increasing hiring has acted as an upper bound for this series....

US Railraod Traffic Remains At Depressed Levels

06 Nov, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

One of the more striking, and under reported, trend changes in the US economy since the Great Recession has been the decline in railraod carload trafffic. The chart below shows the four-week moving average and one-year moving average total carload traffic....

Latest Rally Not Confirmed By Banks

01 Nov, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Banks, and financials in general, play an important role in the performance of stock indices. Many bull markets are characterized by the outperformance of banks relative to the overall market. The latest rally in the S&P has not been confirmed by the relative outperformance of...

Mixed signals coming out of the US

31 Oct, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

There doesn’t seem to be a trend in the US economic releases recently. In the past week we have had weaker housing data (Pending Home Sales), an ok production data point (Industrial Production), below consensus employment report (ADP), a weaker regional survey (Dallas Fed), and...

The most interesting charts from today’s US data releases

28 Oct, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The Pending Home Sales Index has been running quite a bit hotter than the Existing Home Sales Index since late 2011. This month’s report cooled that trend somewhat. The Pending Home Sales Index surprised on the downside in September. The consensus expectation was for no...

NYSE Margin Debt rose to All-Time highs

23 Oct, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Peaks in NYSE Margin Debt has been a leading indicator in the last large market declines (2000, 2007, 2011). NYSE Margin Debt was looking like it might be topping out in April. However, the latest data for September shows it increased by about $20 billion...