Weakening Employment Down Under Suggests Chinese GDP Continues to SlowJanuary 17, 2014
Labor market data out of Australia today showed another rise in the unemployment rate to 5.85%, the highest level since June 2009. Australia, being at the beginning of of the global supply chain for raw materials, often gives early indications of growth levels in countries like China where fixed investment plays a large part in the economy. Thus, unemployment rising to a 4.5-year high suggests a further deceleration in the pace of growth in the world’s second largest economy to somewhere well below 7% in 2014.
For what it’s worth, the consensus forecast for Chinese GDP growth in 2014 and 2015 is still in the 7.5% range.