GDP Tag

Mid-Quarter Update: What Does Transitory Mean?

02 Sep, by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets, Portfolio Management

In this Mid-Quarter Update, we discuss our analysis on the following topics: -Recent readings on consumer confidence have rolled over. The surveys are validated by the stagnation in real consumer spending in the last few months. -In conjunction with the slowdown in house sales and durable goods...

A GDP Report That Screams Trade Wars and Government Spending

26 Oct, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

Third quarter real GDP came in at a 3.5% QoQ annualized rate for the third quarter, above expectations for a 3.3% growth rate. The growth rate itself wasn't much of a surprise, and frankly, neither were the drivers of growth. But, the report is reminder...

An Unremarkable GDP Report and Why Trend Growth is Still 2%

27 Oct, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

Today's preliminary Q3 GDP number of 3% growth at a QoQ annualized rate has been met with a mix of relief and hope. Relief that one of the most destructive hurricane seasons ever didn't completely sap growth and hope that two consecutive quarters of 3%+...

The Step Down In Long-Term US Growth Rates Breaks Lower

29 Apr, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

From 1974 to 2007, the long-term US growth rate in real GDP generally fell between 3-3.5% on annualized basis (excluding the v-shaped bounce from 1982-1984).  We define long-term here by looking at the 10-year annualized percentage change. With the 1Q now in the books, this...

The Strong USD Is Negatively Impacting US Trade

06 Mar, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

Exports have been a solid contributor to US GDP growth for the last few years, while consumption and residential investment have been more restrained.  Recently, with consumption firming and likely to improve further from the tail-wind of lower oil prices, and exports faltering, it appears...

Disappointing Data Out of Europe– and a Big Change Ahead

14 Oct, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

While we will have to wait another month or so to see the official results, today’s data releases of both the ZEW Survey (red line) and European Industrial Production (dark blue line) do not bode well for Europe’s Q3 GDP (light blue line) release: On...

Can The US Realize 3.7% GDP Growth For The Next 3 Quarters?

30 Apr, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Today’s 1st quarter US GDP report came in much lower than consensus estimates were forecasting and were much lower than we were expecting even though we thought estimates were too high (see US GDP Likely To Disappoint).  1Q14 GDP was barely positive at 0.1% QoQ annualized...

Meanwhile, Across the Channel…

26 Feb, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

As we saw yesterday, Germany’s Q4 GDP release was neither surprising nor very exciting.  A similar look at today’s release of output in the U.K. reveals a more constructive picture: With positive contributions from all sectors– and a sizeable rise in business investment– the trend...

What Does Today’s Ifo Survey Say About Tomorrow’s GDP Release?

24 Feb, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Continued improvement in Germany’s main business climate indicator– it is the highest it has been since July 2011– would seem to support further increases in the country’s GDP: We take note, however, that the expectations component of the survey fell for the first time since...