In the most recent FOMC meeting, the committee decided to refrain from raising rates again, but held open the prospect for further hikes this year. They also took back two anticipated rate cuts next year. Along with the Summary of Economic Projections that the Fed...
In this Mid-Quarter Update, we discuss our analysis on the following topics: -Recent readings on consumer confidence have rolled over. The surveys are validated by the stagnation in real consumer spending in the last few months. -In conjunction with the slowdown in house sales and durable goods...
From 1974 to 2007, the long-term US growth rate in real GDP generally fell between 3-3.5% on annualized basis (excluding the v-shaped bounce from 1982-1984). We define long-term here by looking at the 10-year annualized percentage change. With the 1Q now in the books, this...
The trend toward knowledge investments and away from traditional investments in fixed assets such as equipment and structures continued in the 1Q in the US. Investment in intangible property products now account 4.1% of GDP....
Exports have been a solid contributor to US GDP growth for the last few years, while consumption and residential investment have been more restrained. Recently, with consumption firming and likely to improve further from the tail-wind of lower oil prices, and exports faltering, it appears...
As was widely reported yesterday, 3Q GDP growth was the strongest since 9/30/2003. However, less widely reported was the fact the intellectual property products contributed the most to real GDP in 32 quarters (9/30/2006). Fixed investment overall contributed 121 basis points to real GDP....
While we will have to wait another month or so to see the official results, today’s data releases of both the ZEW Survey (red line) and European Industrial Production (dark blue line) do not bode well for Europe’s Q3 GDP (light blue line) release: On...
Given the plunge in first quarter real GDP in the US, it is probably not surprisingly that the full year 2014 GDP estimates are falling as well. In fact since February, according to Consensus Economics, real GDP estimates for the US have fallen by 68...
Similar to last week’s disappointing ZEW survey (see here), the German Ifo survey fell for the third time in four months in June....
Today’s 1st quarter US GDP report came in much lower than consensus estimates were forecasting and were much lower than we were expecting even though we thought estimates were too high (see US GDP Likely To Disappoint). 1Q14 GDP was barely positive at 0.1% QoQ annualized...
Quite a bit of US data was released this morning. The major releases were GDP 3rd revision, Corporate Profits, Initial Jobless Claims, & Pending Home Sales. Let’s take a quick look at each....
As we saw yesterday, Germany’s Q4 GDP release was neither surprising nor very exciting. A similar look at today’s release of output in the U.K. reveals a more constructive picture: With positive contributions from all sectors– and a sizeable rise in business investment– the trend...
Today’s release of GDP data for Germany’s Q4 was decidedly dull and in-line with market expectations....
Continued improvement in Germany’s main business climate indicator– it is the highest it has been since July 2011– would seem to support further increases in the country’s GDP: We take note, however, that the expectations component of the survey fell for the first time since...
