The President today asked Congress for a gasoline tax holiday to alleviate the cost of gasoline and diesel in the country. This is not the solution. With the exception of a 200,000 barrel/day refinery in Garyville, Louisiana, built by Marathon Petroleum in July 2020, there has...
The Federal Reserve is in the midst of an historic tightening cycle, and it has begun to impact the economy. The latest casualty is the decline in oil prices, which opens up a new set of possibilities in asset allocation. In this special report, we look at the...
As we write, comments by officials in Saudi Arabia about possible OPEC production increases later this year have sent WTI crude oil futures down below $68.00/barrel (-4%), down from nearly $73/barrel just three days ago. Meanwhile, global energy stocks are lower by about -2% for...
After spending the last four months consolidating gains, crude oil is breaking higher again, and it's taking inflation expectations with it (charts 1 & 2). The break higher in crude isn't surprising given that oil fundamentals haven't been this good in years. Neither is the...
Oil prices have pushed through resistance and are breaking out while the US dollar has pushed through support and is breaking down. All of the major industrial commodity prices are moving in lock step, while the global economy appears to be accelerating led by the...
As the famous Yogi Berra once said, "You can observe a lot just by watching". At the moment we are watching the price of oil break out of a trading range to the highest level in about 2.5 years. The "common knowledge" explanation for the...
The impressive rallies of late in the industrial commodities could be nearing their end. Both copper and oil are bumping up against substantial resistance at their own 200-day moving averages that have acted to put a lid on previous rallies. Meanwhile, and not coincidentally, the...
Back on November 19th we asked if WTI Crude oil was about to go the way of copper, gold and lumber in making a new low on the year. Well, today that finally happened, and it didn't even occur with a breakout of the US...
WTI crude oil is at an interesting junction currently. As we write, the USD is on the precipice of a major breakout while WTI crude is just a few percent away from the its late-August lows. Meanwhile, the other most cyclically inclined commodities (copper, lumber) have...
Change can be hard, but change can also be good. At this very moment we are living through one of the largest and potentially destabilizing periods of economic change in the last century. It is the mirror image and reversal of the last great economic paradigm...
The last few weeks has seen some notable weakness in a few economic indicators in peripheral Asian countries. We've noted the connection between falling Chinese industrial output and copper and oil prices for some time, but now the Chinese slowdown is being felt in things...
