Yields on 10-Year Japanese Government Bonds have fallen by about a third over the past two weeks, as shown in the chart below. Given the tumult surrounding banks recently, and a series of relatively dismal economic data releases out of Japan, this isn’t exactly surprising. This...
In this quarter's strategy package, we share our analysis on Japan's Reopening Trade. In the full slide presentation, we cover the following: -Japan seems to have crushed the COVID-19 virus (for now at least) with daily new cases under 400/day. Lockdowns are over and the economy...
The relationship between the Japanese Yen and the spread between the US 30-year treasury yield and US 10-year yield has had a very tight negative correlation (-0.85) over the past 10-years (since 1986 when the bond spread series begins the correlation is -0.61). Since the...
After two years of devaluation, the Japanese Yen is quite undervalued by our work. In the first chart below, we show the JP Morgan broad and narrow Japanese Yen relative to long-term trendlines. By these measures, the yen is around 25% below the 25 year...
Stocks are once again departing from most other asset classes today as the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 rip higher while treasury yields and most hard commodities are down on the day, though higher than in early morning futures trading....
After undergoing a fairly rapid depreciation from the end of 2012 to mid-2013 the yen has traded in a more or less sideways channel and has recently been parked between 101-104 per USD....
We’ve noted on several occasions over the past few weeks the fact that trader positioning and sentiment towards the yen is pushing the most extreme negative levels in a decade....
We’ve noted on numerous occasions the almost eerie relationship between S&P 500 strength and the USD/JPY weakness and so far this year (and today) we have more of the same....
With Fed tapering now a reality, it would seem the path of least resistance for the yen is down. It appears though from looking at trader positioning and public opinion sentiment that this thesis is now common knowledge....
Gold isn’t taking tapering so well this morning. It is down about 3% so far and is at levels not seen since mid-2010. Meanwhile the USD is strengthening with the main casualty being the yen. With Fed tapering now a reality, the BOJ may be...
The yen sold off by 1.4% today on Fed tapering and is now trading at the lowest level versus the USD since mid-2008. This result produced a near instantaneous vertical ramp in Nikkei futures, which are currently trading up 2.4% off the session lows....
South Korea’s KOSPI stock index is often viewed as a barometer for global growth because of the country’s important position in the global supply. Thus, the KOSPI index is often referred to as Dr. KOSPI. So what is Dr. KOSPI’s prognosis of the global economy...
We’ve been highlighting how S&P 500 futures and the YEN/USD cross have basically been moving tick for tick recently, so we thought it prudent to point out that the relationship has basically dissolved over the last two days, and in fact has started to reverse....
The Japanese yen carry trade, in which one barrows low cost yen to speculate in foreign markets with higher interest rates or slower money printers, is performing well today as it goes almost tick for tick with the S&P 500....
