Stronger USD or Higher Inflation Expectations?October 21, 2013
Over the last four years, the derived inflation expectation of 30 year US Treasury bonds have moved in tandem with US Dollar. When the USD falls, inflation expectations rise, and when the USD rises, inflation expectations fall.
Since mid-September, the US Dollar Index has fallen from over 82 to under 80. Over this period, inflation expectations are basically flat. It would seem that either we should expect the US Dollar to firm up or derived inflation expectations should rise.