Fed Tag

Thoughts on Fed Meeting and Rest of Year

04 May, by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets, News

Today the Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate (upper bound) to 1% from 50bps. The most surprising element of the press conference was the Chairman dismissing that the committee is not “actively” considering a 75bps hike right now. This sent algos into...

Is Powell’s Confidence Shared by the Rest of the FOMC?

17 Mar, by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy

While many commentators scratched their heads at the Fed’s latest summary of economic projections (SEP), the market took its cue from Chairman Powell's suggestion the US economy can withstand a barrage of rate increases this year without negatively impacting growth. In addition to the SEP, the...

Will They or Won’t They?

08 Mar, by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets, News

The Federal Reserve has all but cemented expectations for a 25bps rate hike next week. But, events have changed a lot in the last couple weeks that raise a faint hint that the Fed may not hike, despite elevated, persistent inflation. What makes us question whether...

Powell Successfully Walks the Tightrope

11 Jan, by Austin Mann in Economy, Markets, News

Below we highlight a few takeaways from Fed Chair Jerome Powell's confirmation hearing today before the Senate Banking Committee, broken down by topic. -Focus on “less accommodative” moves -Powell made numerous statements indicating that COVID, though prevalent, will not be as pressing in policy decisions for...

Does the Fed Have a Brewing Velocity Problem?

17 Nov, by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy

A basic tautology that economists consider when thinking about monetary policy is the velocity of money. MV=PQ translates into Money*Velocity=Price*Quantity. Of course, price*quantity is nominal GDP while “M” is the money supply (for example, M2) while “V” is velocity, or the number of times the...

Ready for Another USD Rally?

19 Jun, by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

As funding strains appeared in March, the USD surged. Then the Fed stepped in with massive foreign exchange swaps as a way to lend USD to foreign central banks, intended to ultimately be lent to borrowers in need of USD. As F/X swaps reached almost...

Keep an Eye on the Yuan & Corporate Spreads

28 May, by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

Since the March 23, 2020 low, when the Federal Reserve announced basically unlimited liquidity via a variety of programs, corporate spreads have narrowed, and the stock market has risen substantially. In the chart below, I overlay US investment grade spreads over the S&P 500 Index. The...

Why the Fed Cut Rates by 50bps: Will it Help?

03 Mar, by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets, News

Despite the relief rally yesterday, financial conditions have tightened significantly in the last couple weeks. This likely explains why the Fed just made an emergency 50bps cut to the fed funds rate. The graph below highlights that the two main areas of weaker financial conditions...

What’s Behind the Breakout in Gold?

20 Feb, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

This week’s breakout in gold is an epic expression of our times in which potential economic problems are quickly followed by massive actual and expected responses by central banks and governments. The problem de jour (for both markets and the public) is of course the...

Is the Fed Already Behind the Curve?

27 Jun, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

To cut or not to cut is no longer the question. Now the question is the quantity, magnitude and timing of rate cuts for the rest of the year. This week was an important one in that we were privy to several important Fed speeches as...

The Bond Market is Not Impressed with the Fed

21 Jun, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Markets

On Tuesday of this week we wrote about the four possible scenarios the Fed could adopt in their Wednesday policy decision. In order of most hawkish to most dovish, those scenarios were: Fed does not cut rates and signals that a rate cut may be...

The Fed’s Many Options for Tomorrow

18 Jun, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

Tomorrow will obviously be one of the most important news days of the year for financial markets with the Fed expected at the very least to signal that a rate cutting cycle is in the offing. Indeed, since the Fed last raised rates the yield...