Fed Tag

Why the Fed Cut Rates by 50bps: Will it Help?

03 Mar, by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets, News

Despite the relief rally yesterday, financial conditions have tightened significantly in the last couple weeks. This likely explains why the Fed just made an emergency 50bps cut to the fed funds rate. The graph below highlights that the two main areas of weaker financial conditions...

What’s Behind the Breakout in Gold?

20 Feb, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

This week’s breakout in gold is an epic expression of our times in which potential economic problems are quickly followed by massive actual and expected responses by central banks and governments. The problem de jour (for both markets and the public) is of course the...

Is the Fed Already Behind the Curve?

27 Jun, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

To cut or not to cut is no longer the question. Now the question is the quantity, magnitude and timing of rate cuts for the rest of the year. This week was an important one in that we were privy to several important Fed speeches as...

The Bond Market is Not Impressed with the Fed

21 Jun, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Markets

On Tuesday of this week we wrote about the four possible scenarios the Fed could adopt in their Wednesday policy decision. In order of most hawkish to most dovish, those scenarios were: Fed does not cut rates and signals that a rate cut may be...

The Fed’s Many Options for Tomorrow

18 Jun, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

Tomorrow will obviously be one of the most important news days of the year for financial markets with the Fed expected at the very least to signal that a rate cutting cycle is in the offing. Indeed, since the Fed last raised rates the yield...

John Williams Takes the “Under” on Expected Rate Hikes

22 May, by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, News

Yesterday John Williams, one of the newest members of the Federal Open Market Committee, wrote an article titled “The Future Fortunes of R-star: Are They Really Rising?” where he summarized his views on real neutral interest rates. He began with a short definition: “R-star is what economists...

Fed Interest Rate Hike Probability Rises to 70% Post Employment Report

06 Nov, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Markets

With today's US employment report the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase at the December meeting has increased to 70% based on Fed Funds Futures. This is sending ripples throughout asset markets as commodities slump towards the year's lows or make new lows,...