Currency Markets & Knightian Uncertainty February 08, 2019

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

Knightian uncertainty is named after University of Chicago economist Frank Knight (1885–1972), who distinguished risk and uncertainty in his work Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit: “Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of Risk, from which it has never been properly separated…. The essential fact is that ‘risk’ means…

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The Employment Report is Not All It’s Cracked up to Be February 01, 2019

By Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

Today’s “blowout” employment report, while strong in some respects, should be taken with a grain of salt. It’s important to remember that employment is a lagging indicator. Payroll employment often peaks either at the beginning or middle of recessions, so it provides virtually no warning…

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A New Year, New Expectations in the US Treasury Market January 31, 2019

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

The slide in oil prices in October accounted for most of the move in 10-Year US Treasury bonds via the inflation risk component of the term premium. The two series are always highly correlated and this is a mechanism through which oil price changes are…

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Geopolitics Outlook 2019: Q&A with Peter Zeihan January 04, 2019

By Knowledge Leaders Team in News

As the year ended with global unknowns and market uncertainties weighing on investors’ minds, we sat down with geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan to discuss his outlook for 2019. His top predictions included calls on Brexit, a US-Britain trade deal, China’s exit from world trade, new…

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