Blog

Is 2019 Going to be the Year of the Profit Margin Problem? December 12, 2018

By Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

2018 has been kind to corporate profit margins. In fact, the margin expansion we’ve seen so far in 2018 is unprecedented in a late cycle economic environment when wages are rising briskly, at least looking back over the last thirty years. What has been different…

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Prognosis for Fourth Quarter Growth December 06, 2018

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

One of the more well-recognized Now-Casting data series is the GDPNow series produced by the Federal Reserve of Atlanta. Every day they incorporate economic data releases and update their estimate for GDP growth in the current quarter. GDPNow is a great source of information on…

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Was Today’s Rally the All Clear Signal or More Noise? November 28, 2018

By Bryce Coward, CFA in Markets

The equity markets no doubt experienced a powerful move today on the back of Fed Chair Powell’s dovish remarks mid-day. Specifically, his comments laid the groundwork for a pause in interest rate hikes in the first quarter of 2018. It was a welcome development for…

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There is a Huge Disconnect Between Energy Credit and Equity November 13, 2018

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

Oil prices have swung drastically over the last couple months. The market was unprepared for the US to grant waivers amounting to nearly one million barrels/day to fill the void expected to be left by the drop in Iranian exports. Instead of Iranian exports plunging…

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Machine Learning to the Rescue November 01, 2018

By Baruch Lev in Guest Author, Knowledge Leaders

My previous blog post (“Beware! Estimates Dominate Financial Reports,” October 13, 2018) alerted you the hidden secret of accounting: Most balance sheet and income statement items are based on managerial subjective estimates and projections (like depreciation, asset write-offs, bad debts, expected gain on pension assets, etc.). The…

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Good For a Bounce in Stocks, But How Much More? October 31, 2018

By Bryce Coward, CFA in Markets

The selling over recent weeks has been fast and intense, providing investors almost no relief. This type of short-term selling pressure has reached fever pitch levels that is usually indicative of some sort of relief rally, even if the ultimate lows are still ahead of…

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