We met with Geopolitical Strategist Peter Zeihan for a quarterly update right before the French presidential elections. In addition to calling Macron’s win, Peter outlined the three most important geopolitical shifts for US financial advisors to watch in the coming months. In order of priority:…
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We met with Geopolitical Strategist Peter Zeihan for a quarterly update right before the French presidential elections. In addition to calling Macron’s win, Peter outlined the three most important geopolitical shifts for US financial advisors to watch in the coming months. In order of priority:…
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A recent run of weaker economic data, highlighted by the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) plunging to -32 from 58 in mid-March has caught the attention of the US Treasury bond market. In the chart below, I plot the CESI against US 10 Year Treasuries….
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In the table below we show the aggregate US Treasury maturity schedule. Due to stops and starts of the US Treasury issuing longer dated bonds over the last few decades, there is a huge gap in maturities available for investors. The reader will notice that there…
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So far in this earnings season, with over half of companies having reported, the energy sector has experienced the biggest earnings surprise. Earnings have come in almost 23% ahead of analyst estimates, nearly double the surprise of the consumer discretionary sector. Digging into industry groups,…
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In this quarter’s Knowledge Leaders Strategy update, we discuss our work in four areas. 1. The state of global innovation: After 52 years, Moore’s Law is alive and well with the number of transistors per chip still doubling every two years. Since semiconductors are the general…
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Last week, Intel executives took the stage in San Francisco to report to an audience of analysts, investors and media that Moore’s Law is alive and well. What does this have to do with our investment process and the Knowledge Effect? Everything. Moore’s Law and…
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In a market experiencing the largest pullback since the election, investors are rightly looking for places to hide. At present, according to our work, the US energy sector is the only truly oversold sector. In our technical work, when a group reaches less than 20%…
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We recently met with geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan to discuss world events since the American election and his new book, “The Absent Superpower: The Shale Revolution and a World without America.” In the book, Peter credits energy and resource innovations with reshaping the global geopolitical…
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The interplay between debt and income can be a difficult thing to understand. Here is a useful analogy. Imagine a hot air balloon lying on the ground preparing for take-off. The fuel tank, used to heat the air, is the balance sheet in this analogy…
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Since the election we’ve heard the rally in stocks characterized as a “Trump Trade” or a “reflation” trade. We think there is a really important element missing from this analysis that could change very quickly over the next several weeks. On March 16, 2017 (the…
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We recently met with geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan to discuss world events since the American election and his new book, “The Absent Superpower,” released last month. In the book, Peter credits energy and resource innovations with reshaping the global geopolitical environment. He predicts by 2019,…
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In our new quarterly update report, Portfolio Manager Steven Vannelli, CFA, discusses the investment team’s recent analysis on two topics, including: 1. New portfolio opportunities. Huge innovation in the energy sector – and the US Shale Revolution specifically — has manifested into new portfolio opportunities. The US…
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Today Chief Investment Officer Steven Vannelli, CFA, hosted a conference call to share the investment team’s analysis of the global equity and fixed income markets one week after the election. Click the link below to download the presentation. DOWNLOAD SLIDES A recording of the call will…
Read MoreThis quarter we discuss our work navigating a global equity rotation from defensive-driven leadership to cyclical-driven leadership. We analyze economic growth trends and our belief that we are in the closest thing to a synchronized global upturn that we’ve seen in years. We discuss three liquidity…
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